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A unanimous, fully-priced quarter-point increase to 3.75–4.00% mattered less than Chair Warsh refusing to call money tight, a Saudi pipeline attack sending WTI above $105, and record $6.39 diesel the Fed concedes it cannot fix.
A four-day week turned an oil-supply scare into an inflation regime: Brent gained 8.7% to $104.61, the 30-year hit its highest since 2007, and futures moved to roughly 90% odds of a September hike.
WTI settled at $91.22, up 9.32%, and September rate-hike odds whipsawed from two-in-three to a coin flip on conflicting Fed remarks, while the S&P 500 closed up just 0.09% at 7,718.6.
The S&P 500 rose just 0.49% to 7,711.76 as NVIDIA, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta drove software's best day in years, before Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole turn roughly doubled 2026 hike odds to about 67%.
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33%, its highest since 2007; a one-day Treasury buyback pledge failed to hold, while gold rose 5.18%, WTI 5.15% and bitcoin roughly 20% as US debt crossed USD 40tn.
In-line July CPI and a softer PPI pushed September hold odds to roughly 68%, while a 6.9% oil week and Nvidia's six-bank financing MOUs redefined who pays for the AI buildout.
The S&P 500 rose 3.6% and the Nasdaq 100 about 5% as the AI trade roared back, yet July payrolls turned negative at -23,000 and Chair Warsh signalled willingness to raise rates in September if inflation runs hot.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell ~26% from its June high before Microsoft's blowout Azure quarter and a forced fund liquidation sparked an ~8% chip rally, leaving the S&P 500 up 0.96% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.52% on the week to July 31, 2026.
Brent crossed $100 on the US–Iran conflict and a 1969-low jobless print pushed money markets to price a September hike, while Alphabet and Tesla's cash-flow-negative quarters wiped roughly $888 billion off the seven largest tech names
TSMC, ASML and Netflix all beat and raised, yet the AI basket fell ~6% on the week; IBM's pre-announcement sank shares ~25% as a cold June CPI kept the Fed patient
The S&P 500 rose 1.23% to 7,575.39 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.69% to 29,825.10 over the week, even as June FOMC minutes confirmed the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and fresh US strikes on Iran sent Brent up more than 5% to $76.01.
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