Oil spike near $100 drives the 10-year to 4.975% as a September Fed hike becomes near-certain

A four-day week turned an oil-supply scare into an inflation regime: Brent gained 8.7% to $104.61, the 30-year hit its highest since 2007, and futures moved to roughly 90% odds of a September hike.

Deepakshi

Kristal Research & Marketing team

11 Sept

Key takeaways — AI summary

Brent settled at $104.61 after an 8.7% weekly gain — its biggest since July — as the Iran conflict and Red Sea disruptions turned a risk premium into a supply reality; the IEA reported Saudi crude supply fell 2.3mn bpd to a three-decade low of 6mn in August.
The Treasury curve bear-flattened: the 2-year rose 28bps to above 4.60%, the 10-year settled at 4.975% (+19bps) and the 30-year reached roughly 5.37%, its highest since 2007.
Hotter price data — headline PPI +5.4% y/y (energy did most of the work) and core CPI +0.3% m/m — moved futures to roughly 90% odds of a September Fed hike and about 97% probability of at least one more before year-end; 51bps of tightening is now priced for 2026 versus 60bps of cuts expected in February.
US indices fell on the week — Dow −1.6%, S&P 500 −0.8% to 7,656.98, Nasdaq 100 −0.6% — with a ~1% Friday relief rally after crude eased; global equity funds saw $15.52bn of outflows, the largest since March.
The ECB raised its deposit rate 25bps to 2.50%, and the newsletter says the Bank of Japan is expected to lift rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%; Kristal's analysis flagged Oracle's $664bn RPO alongside negative free cash flow and Adobe's ~59% two-year share decline despite growing earnings.

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