Blowout software and AI earnings collide with a hawkish Jackson Hole

The S&P 500 rose just 0.49% to 7,711.76 as NVIDIA, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta drove software's best day in years, before Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole turn roughly doubled 2026 hike odds to about 67%.

Deepakshi

Kristal Research & Marketing team

28 Aug

Key takeaways — AI summary

The S&P 500 gained 0.49% to 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.43% to 29,433.43, but the calm masked violent rotation: Monday saw 19 of 2026's 20 best S&P names fall and NVIDIA close down a seventh straight session, before Thursday's tech rally of 3.40%.
Earnings drove the swing — after NVIDIA's print (data centre revenue $89bn, up 117%), software surged Thursday with Okta +29%, Salesforce +22%, CrowdStrike +20% and NVIDIA +9%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, saying he needs more inflation progress; the document says the probability of a 2026 rate hike roughly doubled to around 67%, though markets still price about a 60% chance of a September hold.
July core PCE held at 3.3% Y/Y and headline came in hot at 3.7%, while the advance goods trade deficit widened to $118.8bn as capital goods imports jumped 11.3% M/M — AI hardware that Oxford Economics expects to subtract about one point from Q3 GDP.
Cross-asset moves were a rates story: the 10-year ended at 4.722% (−1.6bps) in a bear-flattening, gold fell 3.38% to $4,504.10 and WTI crude lost 3.69% to $83.44 amid oscillating Iran headlines.

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