CoreWeave bonds crack below 80 cents as AI selloff drags Nasdaq down 2%

A hot September inflation report lifted Fed rate-hike odds to about 50%, but the sharper blow came from credit markets pricing AI's biggest borrowers near distress, sending the S&P 500 down 1.05% and Asian chipmakers reeling.

Deepakshi Sharma

Kristal Research

15 Oct

Key takeaways — AI summary

The S&P 500 fell 1.05% to 7,724 — ending a 53-session run without a 1% drop, the longest since 2020 — while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.02% to 29,951, with chip stocks off 4.5% and software 3%; the selloff spread to Asia, where Korea's KOSPI fell about 8%, SK Hynix 11%, Samsung nearly 10% and Japan's Nikkei about 5%.
Credit markets drove the fear: CoreWeave's 2032 bonds fell below 80 cents on the dollar, yielding over 15%, with default insurance pricing a roughly 58% chance of default within five years; CoreWeave shares fell 15.5% and Oracle 8.8% as its five-year default insurance hit a record. Gartner said over 80% of AI cloud start-ups may not survive independently by 2030.
Core consumer prices rose 0.34% in September versus 0.2% expected (yearly core 2.6%), with headline up 0.6% monthly and 3.7% yearly as gasoline jumped 9.1%; futures now price about a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike on October 28, up from roughly 20% before the data.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.33% after the report but closed at 5.19% (down 0.03 points) and eased toward 5.10% in Asia, so rates were not the main driver; Bank of America fell 4.8% after missing forecasts and paying a $1.2 billion fine.
Oil rose $0.95 to $95.09 a barrel on Houthi threats to Saudi oil sites before slipping about 1% in Asia; gold traded at $4,146, up 1.02%, helped by lower yields.

Generated by Kristal AI · reviewed by the research desk

The full newsletter

Related research

Kristal PulseNew

Chip stocks claw back a 3.3% drop as AI-driven inflation faces a key CPI test

The S&P 500 closed flat at 7,805 after a round trip in memory stocks; Korea's KOSPI sank 5.5% on China supply fears before rebounding, and a Fed official warned AI price pressures are spreading.

Deepakshi14 Oct2 min

Kristal PulseNew

Chip stocks tumble on China memory push as Meta's new AI model lifts megacaps

The S&P 500 closed flat at 7,807 on a thin holiday Monday, but the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.71% as CXMT's denser server-memory plan hit Micron and Korean chipmakers, while Meta rose 3.4% on its Muse Wonder model.

Deepakshi13 Oct

Kristal Lens

S&P 500 hits record as bond yields reach 2002 highs and chips tumble on OpenAI revenue reset

The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to a record 7,811.54 even as the 10-year Treasury touched 5.35%, a $20 billion recut of OpenAI's reported revenue knocked the semiconductor index 3.4% in fifteen minutes, and Brent held above $104.

Deepakshi9 Oct2 min