10-year Treasury yield hits 19-year high near 5.17% as AI trade breaks out anyway

Meta's Muse launch and AMD crossing $1 trillion lifted the Nasdaq 100 3.25% even as the 10-year yield rose 17bps to 5.17%, its highest since 2007, on hot US data and hawkish Fed voices.

Deepakshi

Kristal Research & Marketing team

25 Sept

Key takeaways — AI summary

The S&P 500 rose 1.21% to 7,743.41 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.25% to 30,608.13, but almost all of the week's progress came Monday as Meta's Muse launch and AMD's run to a $1 trillion valuation lifted the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 4.3%; Goldman notes the median S&P 500 stock sits 16% below its 52-week high.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17%, up roughly 17bps and its highest since 2007; the 5-year broke above 5% and the 30-year reached about 5.53%, with Goldman counting seven consecutive months of higher 10-year yields, the longest run in 50 years.
Flash PMIs showed the fastest US business growth in over five years (composite 58.4 from 56.0), jobless claims fell to 197,000 and input costs rose fastest in four years, while University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 48.1 and year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%.
Fed Vice Chair Williams said another hike by year-end is reasonable, leaving markets pricing roughly 68% odds of a 25bps hike on October 28; BofA counts about 60 central bank hikes worldwide this year versus 20 in 2025.
WTI crude fell 7.12% to $92.44 on reports of a phased US-Iran Hormuz deal while Brent held near $104 on Houthi strikes; gold slipped 2.16% to $4,320.50 as the dollar rose for four straight sessions.

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