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IC Outlook - Q3 2025

How a bilateral trade offensive turned April's recession fears into record equity highs — and how Kristal repositioned its portfolios for the second half of 2025.

Sachin Nikhare

Kristal Investment Committee

31 Jul

Executive summary

The first half of 2025 delivered the sharpest policy pivot since the 2018 trade war escalation. From April's 60% recession probability estimates to July's record S&P 500 and Nasdaq highs, markets experienced a complete transformation driven by President Trump's bilateral trade offensive.

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