IC Outlook - Q2 2025
Kristal's Q2 2025 outlook maps a portfolio strategy for a tariff-driven market defined by historic volatility, with gold as the highest-conviction hedge.
Sachin Nikhare
Kristal Investment Committee
Executive summary
The Q2 2025 investment landscape has been dramatically reshaped by President Trump's April 10th announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. The policy pivot triggered historic market moves, but underlying economic concerns persist. Recession probabilities were estimated at 60% by major financial institutions prior to the announcement, and the Federal Reserve's expected pivot toward monetary easing remains in focus, with market expectations moderating from four to three potential rate cuts in 2025.
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